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WiseTech Outlook Flags Rising Asia Trade Risk

[ October 23, 2026   //   ]

Ocean freight capacity and reliability risks are increasing on major Asia trade lanes, according to WiseTech Global’s October Ocean Freight Risk Outlook.

WiseTech rated overall risk on both Asia-North America and Asia-Europe trades as high. Europe-North America received a low overall rating.

On Asia-North America, tightening capacity and declining booking acceptance represent the principal concerns. WiseTech expects its booking-security risk measure to rise from 54 percent to 63 percent over three weeks, compared with a historical average of 38 percent.

“Forwarders and shippers should prepare for tighter space and longer delays this month, with reduced carrier capacity and rising booking rejections driving pressure across Asia-North America,” said Jon Charles, WiseTech product manager.

Charles advised shippers to book early against contracted allocations.

Capacity remains more readily available between Asia and Europe, but service reliability has deteriorated. Only 9.9 percent of TEUs arrived at their destination ports on time during September, WiseTech said. Delays of eight days or longer affected almost half of the volume measured.

Europe-North America was the most stable of the three trades, with ample capacity and relatively low booking risk. WiseTech nevertheless assigned the lane a medium on-time risk rating.

The four-week outlook combines carrier schedules, booking requests and responses, container-tracking events and automatic identification system vessel data. Demand, supply and booking-security measurements are calculated in TEUs, while transit-time forecasts are vessel-based.

WiseTech defines an on-time shipment as one for which the actual arrival at the destination port occurred on or before the carrier’s original estimated arrival date—not a subsequently revised estimate.

The company declined to disclose the number of TEUs or booking requests underlying the October outlook, citing commercial sensitivity. It said the information represents global trade patterns across a network serving more than 20,000 logistics companies and connecting with more than 160 ocean carriers.

WiseTech tests its demand forecasts against subsequently published Container Trade Statistics data. The latest mean absolute percentage error ranged from 2 percent to 5 percent across the six directional trade lanes covered by the outlook.

The accuracy measurement applies to WiseTech’s demand forecast rather than the outlook’s broader composite risk ratings.

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