Feature, Freight News, Logistics, Sea

US Ports Import Rebound to Be Short-lived, NRF

[ July 15, 2025   //   Gary Burrows ]

Though import cargo at major U.S. container ports were poised to rebound in July following a double-digit late spring plunge, a late summer swoon is expected once previously paused tariffs take effect Aug. 1, according to the National Retail Federation.

NRF’s Global Port Tracker, created with consultant Hackett Associates, projects June imports at 2.06 million twenty-foot-equivalent units, or TEUs, up 5.9 percent from May but down 3.7 percent from June 2024.

Retailers are caught in the dilemma of either pushing through the uncertainty with peak-season imports for the holiday season, or pausing on the chance Trump’s tariff turmoil will settle into some sort of ‘new normal.’

“The tariff situation remains highly fluid, and retailers are working hard to stock up for the holiday season before the various tariffs that have been announced and paused actually take effect,” said Jonathan Gold NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy.

President Trump on July 4 signed an executive order delaying “reciprocal” tariff until Aug. 1 but also announced tariffs of up to 40 percent on more than a dozen countries. What followed were a flurry of tariff letters seeming to contradict one another.

“Retailers have brought in as much merchandise as possible ahead of the reciprocal tariffs taking effect, and the latest extension to Aug. 1 is greatly appreciated,” Gold said. “Nonetheless, uncertainty over tariffs makes it increasingly difficult for retailers to plan, especially small businesses that have no capacity to absorb tariffs.

“Tariffs are paid by U.S. companies, not foreign countries or businesses, and ultimately drive-up prices for American families while impacting the availability of products. It is vital for the administration to finalize negotiations with our trading partners and provide stability and certainty for U.S. retailers,” he said.

Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said Trump’s tariff-related announcements have only “served to further increase supply chain uncertainty. The global supply chain functions best in a trade environment that is smooth and predictable. Instead, it has been forced to contend with erratic policies and geopolitical volatility.”

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.95 million TEUs in May, down a sharp 11.8 percent from April and down 6.4 percent year over year. It was also the first year-over-year decline since September 2023 and the lowest volume since 1.93 million TEU in May 2024.

Following the June increase, July is forecast at 2.36 million TEUs, up 2.1 percent year over year; August at 2.08 million TEUs, down 10.4 percent year over year; and September at 1.82 million TEUs, down 19.9 percent year over year for the lowest monthly total since 1.87 million TEUs in December 2023. October is forecast at 1.81 million TEUs, down 19.2 percent year over year, and November at 1.7 million TEUs, down 21.3 percent for the lowest total since 1.78 million TEU in April 2023.

Though the August-through-November declines are tariff related, the large year-over-year percentage declines are partly to elevated imports due to concerns about East and Gulf coasts port strikes.

The current forecast would bring the first half of 2025 to 12.63 million TEUs, up 4.5 percent year over year. That’s better than the 12.54 million TEUs forecast last month, but still below the 12.78 million TEUs forecast earlier this year before the April tariffs announcement.

Global Port Tracker covers U.S. ports of Los Angeles-Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York-New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast; and Houston on the Gulf Coast. The report is free to NRF retail members, and subscription information is available at https://nrf.com/topics/global-port-tracker.

Tags: Hackett Associates, Jonathan Gold, National Retail Federation