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US-China Dry Bulk Shipments Double, BIMCO

[ October 1, 2026   //   ]

U.S. dry bulk shipments to China more than doubled during the first nine months of 2026 as grain volumes recovered from last year’s trade-related decline, according to BIMCO.

Shipments increased 104 percent year over year during the first three quarters, led by a 176 percent increase in grain cargoes, BIMCO Shipping Analysis Manager Filipe Gouveia said. U.S. coal shipments to China increased 44 percent and petcoke volumes rose 33 percent.

The rebound follows weaker trade in 2025 amid higher tariffs and U.S.-China trade tensions. BIMCO said a November 2025 agreement that lowered Chinese tariffs on U.S. grains and established soybean import targets helped volumes recover this year.

Panamax vessels have been the primary beneficiaries, carrying 68 percent of U.S. dry bulk cargo volumes to China. Supramax vessels accounted for another 28 percent, with that segment benefiting particularly from stronger petcoke trade.

“As we enter the fourth quarter, U.S. grain shipments are expected to ramp up further, as this year’s soya beans and maize crops are harvested and exported,” Gouveia said.

BIMCO said corn demand could also strengthen because attacks on vessels in the Black Sea have halted Ukrainian seaborne exports.

Further gains could follow from the latest U.S.-China trade negotiations, which identified about US$30 billion of goods in each direction for potentially more favorable tariff treatment. Timing and product-specific tariff reductions have not yet been announced.

BIMCO said coal and most grains are covered by the agreement, while soybeans, the largest U.S. dry bulk export commodity to China, are excluded. Products covered by the agreement accounted for 16 percent of U.S. dry bulk shipments to China in 2025, compared with 35 percent in 2024.

China has also committed to importing at least 10 million tonnes of U.S. coal annually in 2027 and 2028, according to BIMCO. That would about double current U.S.-China coal shipments and leave volumes roughly 2 million tonnes below 2024 levels.

The impact on shipping demand could be disproportionately large. BIMCO said sailing distances for U.S. coal shipments to China are about four times the average distance for China’s coal imports, magnifying the effect of increased volumes on dry bulk tonne-mile demand.

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