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Tariff Tensions Temper Maersk’s ’25 Forecast

[ May 21, 2025   //   Gary Burrows ]

Danish shipping giant Maersk posted better-than-expected first quarter operating profit but warned that the ongoing tariff trade war between China and the U.S. could stunt global container volumes.

Maersk said first quarter earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization, or EBITDA, of US$2.71 billion for the 2025 first quarter, 70 percent better than the US$1.59 billion in the first quarter 2024. Revenue grew 7.8 percent to US$13.3 billion.

Maersk is maintaining its profit guidance of US$6 billion to US$9 billion, though revised its anticipated global container market growth from -1 percent to 4 percent, “given the increased macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty,” the carrier said. The previous container forecast growth was 4 percent.

The revised forecast comes as the shipping industry continues to try to navigate the President Donald Trump administration’s chaotic and complex imposition of tariffs on China, Canada, Mexico and across all U.S. trade partners

Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” set tariffs on U.S. trade partners, led by 145 percent import duties on products from China, with Chairman Xi hitting back with similar tariffs on U.S. goods.

While many companies shipped goods to the U.S. at the beginning of the year ahead of potential tariffs. But most economists call Trump’s tariff gambit a demand shock to the world economy, companies worldwide haver cut sales targets and major economies are revising down growth prospects, impacting demand for shipping goods.

“We knew it was going to be bumpy and indeed following April 2 announcement, things got a bit more bumpy,” said Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc.

Trump has since reached a deal for a 90 day pause with China, in which Trump walked back his tariffs to an effective 30 percent tariff, without China making any concessions in the trade war, which has roiled global markets, and particularly the U.S. economy, which Trump voters believe he was strongest.

Maersk expects market growth in the second quarter, if customers take advantage of a 90-day pause in the bulk of planned U.S. tariffs to build inventories but said there was a risk of demand contracting in the second half of the year if tariffs were not rolled back.

On container market volumes, however, Clerc said the size and speed of the U.S.-China tariffs has led to a 30 percent to 40 percent drop in April box volumes, as shippers waited on the sidelines to see how the trade war would shake out.

Clerk, while noting the tariffs have thus far been a “U.S.-China issue,” he sees “a lot of volatility ahead,” between the economy and the impact of the Red Sea disruption, which is expected to continue throughout the year.

“Unless we find a solution there then the current level of tariffs is simply prohibitive on both sides for it to really show some recovery. So, quite a targeted impact so far,” he said.

Tags: Maersk, Vincent Clerc