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Ship Recycling to Double to 16,000 Ships, BIMCO

[ July 15, 2025   //   Gary Burrows ]

Global ship recycling could double to 16,000 ships, totaling more than 700 million deadweight tonnes over the next 10 years, said Niels Rasmussen, chief shipping analyst at BIMCO.

The Danish international shipping association for shipowners updated its estimate following the entry into force of the Hong Kong International Convention for the Safe and Environmentally Sound Recycling of Ships, or Hong Kong Convention.

The 16,000-vessel estimate, up from 15,000 ships previously, is double the number of ships recycled over the last 10 years, while deadweight tonnage will triple, and “highlights the need for investments in compliant recycling facilities,” Rasmussen said.

BIMCO applied recycling patterns during 2000-2019 for each ship segment and type. “The 2000-2019 period saw both very low and high recycling wherefore we believe it provides a good foundation for calculating the future potential,” Rasmussen said.

“During the 2015-2024 period, ships built in the 1990s made up 35 percent of the ships and 62 percent of the tonnage recycled. During the 2000s, 31 percent more ships were built equal to a 115 percent tonnage increase. The ships built in this period are expected to dominate recycling in the coming 10 years,” he continued.

In fact, only 3 percent of the ships and 5 percent of tonnage built during the 2000s have been recycled, which is consistent with the 20 percent of the ships and 67 percent of the tonnage built in the 1990s.

Combined, the three largest sectors, bulker, tanker and container ships, naturally make up  91 percent of the future recycling potential, while only making up 53 percent of the ships. General cargo and fishing ships each contribute nearly as many ships as each of the three large sectors.

Bangladesh, India and Pakistan continue to be the largest recycling destinations, making up 86 percent of tonnage and 58 percent of ships recycled. Their dominance grew further after 2017 as China stopped recycling international ships and has since recycled less than 2 percent of tonnage.

BIMCO expects most of recycling to continue take place in South Asia, which in 2012 recycled a record of nearly 1,800 ships and 60 million deadweight tonnes. In fact, the potential recycling volume of the coming 10 years is high that recycled tonnages could break the record every year starting from 2027.

“Actual recycling may naturally end lower than our calculated potential if the supply/demand balance is particularly strong,” Rasmussen said. “On the other hand, it could end higher due to weak markets and the need for replacing older tonnage to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In either case, we find it overwhelmingly likely that recycling will end significantly higher than in the past while recycling facilities at the same time need to ensure compliance with the stricter requirements of the Hong Kong convention.”

Ship sectors included in the data and forecast are dry bulk, tanker, container, gas tankers, general cargo, other dry cargo, offshore and inland waterways.

Tags: BIMCO, Hong Kong Convention