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Retail Sales Reflect Anguish from Tariffs, NRF

[ April 22, 2025   //   ]

Retail sales in March snapped a two-month series of declines, but those gains were moderate, as consumers continued to anguish over rising tariffs, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, the National Retail Federation said April 14.

The improved spending “came before the president’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcement,” said Matthew Shay, NRF president and CEO, of April 5, when Trump unleashed the most sweeping tariff hike since the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, which triggered a global trade war and cratered the Great Depression.

“The pullback we’ve seen the past few months comes despite strong economic fundamentals,” he said. The tariff uncertainty likely factored into March’s increase, with shippers stocking up to get ahead of tariffs, along with the unclear, fluid economic outlook, weakened consumer sentiment and many consumers shifting disposable income into savings.

Total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, were up 0.6 percent seasonally adjusted month over month and up 4.75 percent unadjusted year over year in March, according to the Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions. That compared with February’s decrease of 0.22 percent month over month and an increase of 3.38 percent year over year.

The Retail Monitor calculation of core retail sales (excluding restaurants in addition to automobile dealers and gasoline stations) was up 0.4 percent month over month in March and up 5.07 percent year over year. That compared with a decrease of 0.22 percent month over month and an increase of 4.11 percent year over year in February.

Total sales were up 4.52 percent year over year for the first three months of the year and core sales were up 4.96 percent.

The March results reflect consumer spending that came after President Donald Trump announced tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico in February but before he announced a minimum 10 percent tariff on all U.S trading partners on April 2 along with sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs on dozens of countries.

The reciprocal tariffs have been suspended for 90 days, but additional tariffs on China have resulted in back-and-forth escalation between China and the U.S.

Even before that, however, a survey conducted for NRF by Prosper Insights & Analytics found 46 percent of consumers said they were stocking up on household appliances, clothing and other items in early March because they were worried that they would become more expensive because of tariffs.

Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions and does not need to be revised monthly or annually.

March sales were up across the board on a yearly basis, led by digital products, general merchandise stores, and sporting goods, hobby, music and bookstores.

To learn more, visit nrf.com/nrf/cnbc-retail-monitor.

CAPTION: Trump suspended his ‘reciprocal tariffs’ for 90 days, but back-and-forth has escalated between China and the U.S. PHOTO: Getti Images

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