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Peak Season Gives Way to Demand Waves, Rhenus

[ June 26, 2026   //   ]

Editor’s note: This article is the first in a series examining the forces reshaping the 2026 shipping peak season. FBJNA’s comprehensive Peak Season Forecast will appear in the July/August issue.

The traditional summer-to-fall peak shipping season is giving way to a more volatile pattern of year-round demand surges as retailers, manufacturers and importers increasingly move cargo in response to tariffs, disruptions and promotional events rather than fixed seasonal cycles, according to logistics provider Rhenus.

In a new market outlook, the company said global container shipping is being reshaped by multiple overlapping demand waves instead of a single, predictable peak season, creating tighter vessel capacity and more volatile freight rates across major east-west trades.

“The idea of a ‘peak season’ is becoming outdated,” said Renee Toh, vice president of global ocean freight at Rhenus Group. “Instead of one predictable surge, we are seeing demand fluctuate in multiple waves across the year. Volumes are less consistent, more reactive and increasingly driven by external factors.”

The trend is already evident on key Asia-Europe and trans-Pacific routes. Rhenus cited Shanghai Container Freight Index data showing freight rates from Asia to Northern Europe climbed about 81 percent between the first and 24th weeks of 2026, while rates to the U.S. West Coast increased 133 percent over the same period.

Rather than traditional holiday inventory builds, the company said cargo flows are increasingly being driven by inventory replenishment, tariff-related front-loading, anticipated cost increases and major retail events such as Amazon Prime Day and other mid-year promotions.

At the same time, continued vessel diversions around the Cape of Good Hope because of security concerns in the Red Sea are lengthening transit times and reducing effective vessel capacity by keeping ships at sea longer.

The combination of high vessel utilization and reduced network flexibility means even modest increases in demand can trigger disproportionately large freight-rate increases, Rhenus said.

“The idea that supply chains have returned to a stable rhythm no longer reflects reality,” Toh said. “Businesses need to operate in a constant state of adjustment, where flexibility and real-time insight are essential to staying ahead of demand shifts and disruptions.”

For shippers, the changing market is placing greater emphasis on securing capacity earlier, improving supply chain visibility, optimizing container utilization and diversifying transportation options as demand becomes less tied to the traditional late-summer shipping season.

The assessment mirrors a growing consensus across the container shipping industry that trade policy shifts, geopolitical disruptions and changing inventory strategies are making freight demand increasingly difficult to predict using historical seasonal patterns.

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