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Panama Canal Bulker Transits Fall 22%

[ September 18, 2026   //   ]

Panama Canal bulker transits have fallen 22 percent year over year since the beginning of July as lower water levels and increased competition for transit slots push more dry bulk vessels toward longer alternative routes, according to BIMCO.

Tankers have added to competition for canal capacity as U.S. energy exports to Asia increase, while the expected effects of El Niño could further reduce water levels and restrict available transits, said Filipe Gouveia, BIMCO shipping analysis manager.

The Panama Canal Authority has gradually reduced the maximum draft for vessels using the Neopanamax locks from 50 feet to 48 feet since July. Daily canal transits were reduced from 36 to 34 on Sept. 4 and to 32 on Sept. 15, while a plan submitted to Panama’s parliament calls for an average of 29.5 daily transits in October.

The restrictions come as the U.S. corn and soybean export season approaches its peak. About 15 percent of U.S. seaborne corn and soybean exports normally transit the canal en route to East Asia and the west coast of the Americas, BIMCO said.

The U.S. is the origin or destination for 54 percent of dry bulk cargo moving through the canal. Major commodities include grain, steel, fertilizer, coal, salt and petroleum coke, primarily carried aboard Supramax, Handysize and Panamax vessels.

Gouveia said some bulkers are already rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope or Cape Horn, increasing sailing distances and tonne-mile demand.

During the previous El Niño in 2023-24, when bulker canal transits also declined sharply, the resulting diversions increased global dry bulk tonne-mile demand by about 1 percent, according to BIMCO.

The current draft restrictions have had limited direct impact on most dry bulk vessels because they generally use the Panamax rather than Neopanamax locks. But reduced overall transit capacity could increasingly affect the sector as competition for slots intensifies.

“Bulkers are increasingly expected to use alternative routes, while a larger share of exports could be shipped from ports on the Pacific Coast,” Gouveia said.

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