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Dry Bulk Outlook Stable in ’26, Weaker in ’27

[ February 11, 2026   //   Gary Burrows ]

The global dry bulk shipping market is expected to remain broadly balanced in 2026 before weakening in 2027, according to new analysis from BIMCO, as fleet growth begins to outpace demand despite improving economic conditions.

BIMCO revised its 2026 dry bulk demand forecast higher by 0.5 percentage points, citing a stronger macroeconomic outlook. The International Monetary Fund recently raised its global growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3 percent, matching projected growth in 2025, before easing slightly to 3.2 percent in 2027. China’s outlook has also improved on the back of increased stimulus and a trade agreement with the United States, though the IMF still expects a gradual slowdown in Chinese GDP growth.

“Freight rates could remain strong in 2026 as market momentum carries over from 2025,” said Filipe Gouveia, shipping analysis manager at BIMCO. “However, in 2027 we expect rates could begin to slip as market conditions weaken.”

BIMCO expects ship demand to grow 2 percent to 3 percent in 2026 and 1 percent to 2 percent in 2027, supported in part by longer average sailing distances. Tonne-mile demand is forecast to increase as iron ore and bauxite shipments from the South Atlantic to Asia expand, pushing average sailing distances up by an estimated 0.5 percent to 1.5 percent annually. Additional support is coming from stronger grain and minor bulk volumes, though growth is being capped by weaker prospects for iron ore and coal shipments.

The capesize segment is expected to outperform smaller vessel classes, benefiting from low fleet growth and increased exposure to long-haul trades. In contrast, supply growth is accelerating across the broader fleet. Ship supply is forecast to rise 2.5 percent in 2026 and 3 percent in 2027, driven by higher newbuilding deliveries, particularly in the panamax and supramax segments. Recycling activity is also expected to increase, though it will remain below historical averages. Sailing speeds are forecast to slow modestly, especially outside the capesize segment.

BIMCO also flagged uncertainty surrounding shipping routes in the Red Sea. While the likelihood of a full return has improved following a ceasefire in Gaza and the absence of attacks since late September, ongoing geopolitical instability continues to cloud the outlook.

A full resumption of Red Sea transits would present a downside risk to demand, BIMCO said. “A complete return would be equivalent to a 2 percent reduction in tonne-mile demand due to shorter average sailing distances,” Gouveia said.

Tags: BIMCO, International Monetary Fund