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Drewry: Rate Volatility from Iran ‘Manageable’

[ April 1, 2026   //   ]

Shippers should not overreact to recent increases in ocean freight rates linked to the Iran conflict, as current volatility remains below levels seen during the Covid-19 pandemic, according to Drewry Shipping Consultants.

Data from Drewry’s Container Freight Rate Insight shows that spot rates on major east-west and north-south trades have risen in recent weeks but are still less volatile and lower than peaks recorded during global supply chain disruptions in 2020.

“Unlike the airfreight market, the container shipping market has not seen a significant fall in capacity after the start of the Iran war, with the exception of capacity to and from the Gulf,” said Philip Damas, head of logistics practice at Drewry. “Therefore, we believe that the increase in ocean rates on non-Middle East-connected routes will be manageable and shippers should not panic.”

Rate Rises During Covid vs Iran War Period (US$/container)

SOURCE: Drewry Container Rate Insight, Drewry Benchmarking Club

Drewry said capacity on most global routes has remained relatively stable, limiting the extent of rate increases outside of lanes directly connected to the Middle East.

However, the firm said routes tied to the region are experiencing sharper volatility, with spot rates in some cases reaching or exceeding levels seen during the pandemic. Even so, Drewry said those increases may ease as carriers adjust pricing.

The firm advised beneficial cargo owners to closely monitor market conditions, particularly as rising fuel costs drive higher bunker adjustment factor surcharges.

Drewry said access to timely rate data and forecasting tools can help shippers better anticipate cost changes and negotiate more competitive freight rates as market conditions evolve.

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