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Congestion Supports Freight Rate Floor

[ October 23, 2026   //   ]

Persistent port congestion and higher fuel costs could prevent freight rates from returning to earlier levels as peak-season demand begins to ease, according to Freightos.

In its October Global Freight Outlook, Freightos said typhoon-related backlogs continued at major Far East ports, while congestion persisted at Northern European hubs. The disruption could take months to clear and establish a higher rate floor ahead of the pre-Lunar New Year shipping period.

Trans-Pacific container demand showed signs of easing following China’s Golden Week holiday. Asia-Europe rates also have declined steadily since mid-July, although carriers are expected to seek increases as annual contract negotiations begin.

The outlook also highlighted uncertainty surrounding the gradual return of container services to the Red Sea. Freightos said all three major carrier alliances and MSC planned to route some vessels through the region by the end of October.

However, escalating regional hostilities could place those plans at risk and potentially cause carriers to return vessels to longer routings around the Cape of Good Hope.

In the Persian Gulf, attacks around the Strait of Hormuz have not produced a significant new effect on container shipping because Gulf-bound services already have been rerouted. Bunker prices nevertheless continued to increase despite reports of recovering Middle East crude exports.

Air cargo disruption from attacks on Riyadh airport remained localized, Freightos said. The analyst also reported further indications that Chinese e-commerce export growth was slowing.

Demand for artificial intelligence and data-center equipment has emerged as a significant source of Asia-North America airfreight volume, partially offsetting softer e-commerce traffic.

Freightos expects strong demand and elevated fuel costs to provide the starting point for additional rate increases during the remainder of the fourth-quarter air cargo peak.

The complete Freightos Global Freight Outlook webinar is available online.

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