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BIMCO Lifts Container Outlook on non-US Trades

[ September 25, 2025   //   ]

Dutch International shipping association BIMCO increased its ship demand growth forecast for 2025 to 4.5 percent to 5.5 percent while maintaining it at 2.5. percent to 3.5 percent for 2026 on the strength of demand in non-U.S.-bound demand.

“We now expect a balanced supply/demand development in 2026 while expecting average market conditions in 2025 to be worse than in 2024,” said Niels Rasmussen, BIMCO’s chief shipping analyst.

With few exceptions, the U.S. tariff increases presented on “Liberation Day” are now fully implemented and several commodity-specific tariff increases have increased.

Due to weaker U.S. import volumes, volumes to North America have seen negative year-on-year growth since April. BIMCO expects that market conditions could be weaker rest-of-year and forecast that North America import volumes will contract 2 percent in 2025 while returning to growth in 2026.

“Cargo volume growth into most regions outside of North America has so far proven resilient and we expect that global volumes will grow 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent in both 2025 and 2026,” Rasmussen said.

In 2025, we expect ship demand to grow faster than cargo volumes as long head-haul trades are growing faster than the average. That is particularly true for Asian exports to sub-Saharan Africa, South and Central America and Europe and Mediterranean regions.

However, it must be remembered that demand remains elevated due to Cape of Good Hope routings. Suez Canal transits remain 90 percent lower than before the Houthis began attacking ships in the Red Sea. Should conditions change and ships fully return to normal routings, we expect ship demand to end 10 percent lower than our forecast.

BIMCO increased its supply growth estimate to 7.3 percent for 2025 while lowering it to 3.1 percent for 2026. It increased the underling fleet growth estimate due to slow recycling activity, while a slightly increasing in sailing speeds increased the 2025 supply estimate. The faster growth during 2025 has conversely caused the relative growth rate in 2026 to end lower than previously forecast.

“We expect that market conditions and freight rates could weaken further during the rest of 2025. So far, time charter rates and second-hand ship prices have been remarkably unaffected by the lower freight rates, but we expect that could change starting in the fourth quarter of 2025. As we forecast stable supply/demand growth, we expect that freight rates could stabilize in 2026,” Rasmussen said.

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