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BIMCO: Container Fleet Growth Outpaces Demand

[ June 26, 2026   //   ]

Even if geopolitical tensions continue to disrupt global shipping, the container market is likely to weaken over the next 18 months as rapid fleet expansion outpaces cargo demand, according to BIMCO’s latest Container Shipping Market Overview & Outlook.

BIMCO Chief Shipping Analyst Niels Rasmussen outlines two scenarios in the June report: one in which the Strait of Hormuz reopens during the third quarter of 2026 and another in which it remains effectively closed through 2027. In both cases, vessel supply is expected to grow faster than demand, eroding the market’s supply-demand balance.

“Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, significant uncertainty will remain and continue to shape market outcomes,” Rasmussen said, citing questions surrounding the durability of the U.S.-Iran agreement, the eventual return to Suez Canal routings and the future of U.S. tariffs.

Despite those uncertainties, global container demand has remained resilient. Volumes increased 5.1 percent during the first four months of 2026, led by intra-Asia trade and exports from East and Southeast Asia to Europe, the Mediterranean and the Southern Hemisphere.

Short-term conditions have tightened as importers accelerated shipments ahead of possible tariff changes and higher bunker costs. BIMCO said front-loading has pushed the Platts Container Index up 80 percent over the past month to its highest level since April 2022.

Longer term, however, Rasmussen argues those gains are unlikely to last.

The association forecasts deliveries of about 4.4 million TEU during 2026 and 2027 while container recycling remains below 200,000 TEU, resulting in fleet growth of 12.7 percent between the end of 2025 and 2027. Even lower sailing speeds, which BIMCO estimates will trim annual supply growth by roughly one percentage point, will not offset the large influx of new capacity.

BIMCO also warned that a return to normal Red Sea and Suez Canal routings could significantly accelerate the market’s weakening. The association estimates a full normalization would reduce global ship demand by roughly 10 percent by eliminating the capacity absorbed by longer voyages around the Cape of Good Hope.

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