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Global Trade Grows, But So Do Risks, UNCTAD

[ April 10, 2026   //   ]

Global trade rose by about US$2.5 trillion in 2025 to a record US$35 trillion, a gain of roughly 7.5 percent, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.

Goods trade led the expansion, increasing about 7 percent and contributing roughly US$1.8 trillion. Services trade grew around 8 percent, adding about US$700 billion.

Growth was strongest in developing economies, particularly in East Asia and Africa, while South-South trade climbed about 9 percent, outpacing the global average.

Momentum has carried into early 2026, though services are showing signs of slowing.

UNCTAD said growth could weaken later in the year amid trade tensions, higher costs and geopolitical risks, including Middle East conflict and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Demand for artificial intelligence, digital technologies and some green products is expected to support trade, while electronics and semiconductors continue to drive manufacturing.

U.S.-China trade fell by about one quarter, or roughly US$170 billion, in 2025. Connector economies such as Cambodia, Egypt, Vietnam and Indonesia are increasingly acting as intermediaries, helping stabilize global flows, UNCTAD said.

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