Feature, Freight News, Logistics, Sea

China Drives 5% Increase in Iron Ore Shipments

[ March 25, 2026   //   Gary Burrows ]

Global iron ore shipments rose 5 percent year over year in the first 12 weeks of 2026, supported by stronger Chinese import demand, even as China’s steel output declined, according to BIMCO.

Chinese steel production fell 4 percent year over year in the first two months of the year, leading to a buildup in port inventories, which reached a record 179.5 million tonnes on March 12, said Filipe Gouveia, shipping analysis manager at BIMCO.

China, the destination for 74 percent of global iron ore shipments, has seen steel output trend lower since 2023 amid weak domestic demand tied to its property sector downturn. Higher exports have only partly offset the decline. Iron ore imports, typically higher grade than domestic supply, remain competitive and can displace local production.

Despite a 3 percent year over year decline in Chinese domestic mining in 2025, output rose 2 percent in the first two months of 2026, adding to supply.

Stronger iron ore volumes have supported dry bulk freight rates, particularly in the capesize segment, which carries about 90 percent of global iron ore cargoes. Iron ore accounts for 73 percent of capesize tonne-mile demand, with low fleet growth also underpinning the market.

Australia, the largest exporter, increased shipments by 10 percent year over year so far this year, benefiting from stronger Chinese demand. Brazil, the second-largest exporter, posted a two percent increase as heavy rainfall disrupted mining. Among smaller exporters, volumes rose in Peru, Liberia and Guinea, while exports from Ukraine fell 66 percent.

The war involving Iran is having a limited direct effect on iron ore trade flows. Shipments through the Strait of Hormuz account for about 2 percent of tonne mile demand, with Oman contributing a similar share. However, tighter diesel availability and higher energy prices could disrupt mining operations and weigh further on Chinese steel demand, Gouveia said.

Tags: BIMCO