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January Box Imports Post First Rise in 6 Months

[ February 11, 2026   //   Gary Burrows ]

U.S. import volumes at major container ports are expected to post their first month-over-month increase in six months in January but remain below year-earlier levels until late spring, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

January volume is forecast at 2.11 million twenty-foot-equivalent units, or TEUs, up from December but down 5.3 percent from a year earlier. February and March are projected at 1.94 million TEUs and 1.88 million TEUs, respectively, with declines of 4.6 percent and 12.4 percent year over year. The first year-over-year gain is expected in May, when volume is forecast to rise 6.2 percent to 2.07 million TEUs.

U.S. ports covered by the report handled 2.02 million TEUs in November, down 2.3 percent from October and down 6.5 percent from a year earlier. December is projected at 1.99 million TEUs, a 6.6 percent year-over-year decline.

The report attributed the January increase to pre-Lunar New Year shipping, followed by a seasonal slowdown after the holiday period. Elevated imports in late 2024 and early 2025, driven by concerns over port labor disruptions and tariffs, are contributing to current year-over-year declines.

“There should be a brief bump in imports this month ahead of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia, but we’re otherwise headed into the post-holiday shipping lull that comes each year,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy. “Retailers are hoping for more stability and certainty, especially regarding tariffs and trade policy, in 2026 to help ensure better supply chain operations to meet consumer needs.”

Following “chronic uncertainty” from increased U.S. tariffs in 2025, the impact on cargo imports in 2026 is likely to still be affected by trade policy, Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said.

“We see a world increasingly focused on protecting domestic industries and addressing perceived trade imbalances,” Hackett said. “This approach has raised questions about the future of free trade and international economic cooperation.”

Total first half 2025 volume reached 12.53 million TEUs, up 3.7 percent from a year earlier. Full-year 2025 volume is forecast at 25.4 million TEU, slightly below 2024 levels.

Global Port Tracker covers major U.S. container gateways on the West, East and Gulf coasts, including Los Angeles-Long Beach, New York-New Jersey, Savannah and Houston.

Tags: Hackett Associates, National Retail Federation