Feature, Freight News, Logistics, Sea

‘Diplomacy at Its Best?’ Trump Dumps on Trade

[ November 1, 2025   //   Gary Burrows ]

The 19th edition of One World’s Market Sentiment Index (MSI) for the multipurpose and breakbulk Industryreflects a modest rise for the first time in 2025 to a level of 53.3, despite a maritime industry roiled by the chaos of the U.S. administration.

Of the 27 carriers that provided inputs to MSI’s fourth quarter edition, 40 percent polled higher and 48 percent lower with 12 percent either unchanged or participating for the first time. Mirroring a similar split in the last edition, carriers remain uncertain of the trading environment directly ahead, according to an early release of the report by One World’s Justin Archer.

The combination of regulations changing frequently in the U.S. together with increasingly arbitrary power in policy making, carriers are wedged between a short-term market which is sitting on its hands and hoping a full-blown trade war does not erupt, and project cargoes increase over the longer term.

The Oct. 14 implementation of the U.S. Trade Representative’s port fees for Chinese built and/or operated vessels is a significant event, but the multipurpose, or MPV, sector is largely shielded from these regulations under Annex II of the rules.

In the same month – in a Truth Social post – President Donald Trump torpedoed the IMO’s Zero Framework (NZE) – a 10-year global effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from ships. Trump threatening tariffs and sanctions on countries and states that approved it. USTR Mike Waltz, the U.S. representative to the UN, called it a “shining example of diplomacy at its best.”

With NZE handcuffed for another year, passing in its’ present form under Trump seems doubtful, leaving shipowners froze out with no clear idea where future fuels policy is heading.

Hopes Lifted on Red Sea

An announced ceasefire commenced in Gaza lifting hopes that an end to the devastating war is achievable – though tempered on Israel unpredictable responses. Carriers, however, are pining for a return of shipping to the Red Sea and Suez Canal.

As trade patterns downshift into a new normal and mass container newbuildings enter the world fleet, reopening the Red Sea passage will be a significant shift in capacity. Freight rates will be challenged. The U.S. dollar has fallen in value over the last six months for carriers deriving their income in U.S. dollars, but settling overheads in another currency will already be feeling a margin squeeze. As nominal capacity rises, utilization factors will take on a higher priority, the report said.

Offshore wind continues to writhe in problems of a regulatory nature. Trump pulled funding for wind projects on federal land, casting a pall over European wind project developers, notably Ørsted, who had to raise US$9.4 billion from shareholders so that it can continue financing its committed projects following U.S. regulatory changes. Both Denmark and Germany suspended offshore wind auctions over the summer when no bids came forward. And in recent days the JERA Nex BP JV has pulled the plug on its Beacon Wind offshore project stating: “there is no viable path for development.”

In contrast, onshore wind cargoes have been quite robust with high-volume shippers willing to take long positions on tonnage to lock in capacity and manage schedule risk, the report said.

The final months of the year are often a very positive period, although carriers note that the lift has yet to arrive in 2025. The northern summer season passed off as stable, as the Toepfer Multipurpose Index remains solid and range bound confirming what has been evolving for much of 2025 and there is a status quo between supply and demand.

Hopes for 2026 will rest on an easing of the trade war so that manufacturing and supply chains can again begin to invest in a trade environment of consistency and continuity, the report said.

The next MSI report will be published in January 2026, where a further rise is forecast.

Tags: Market Sentiment Index, One World