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Holiday Spending Immune to Tariffs? NRF

[ October 23, 2025   //   Gary Burrows ]

U.S. consumers plan to spend US$890.49 per person on average this year on holiday gifts, food, decorations and other seasonal items, according to the National Retail Federation’s annual consumer survey conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics.

The amount is the second-highest in the survey’s 23-year history and falls only 1.3 percent less than last year’s record of US$901.99.

“Americans prioritize spending on loved ones for holidays despite economic uncertainty,” said Katherine Cullen, NRF vice president of industry and consumer insights. Retailers are prepared to deliver on deals and value.”

Nine in 10 of all U.S. adults plans to celebrate winter holidays such as Christmas, Hanukkah or Kwanzaa this year, in line with recent years.

Out of the total, US$627.93 will go to gifts for family and friends. The remaining US$262.56 will be used on seasonal items like food or candy, decorations and greeting cards.

Early shopping remains popular, with 42 percent of shoppers planning to begin browsing and buying for the holiday season before November. The leading reasons they shop early are to spread out their budget (54 percent) or to avoid the stress of last-minute shopping (41 percent). Even with the early start, 60 percent anticipate they will finish shopping in December.

Tariffs remain top of mind for most holiday shoppers, with 85 percent anticipating higher prices because of tariffs. Nearly two-thirds (63 percent) plan to wait until Thanksgiving weekend to do most of their holiday shopping, up from 59 percent last year.

Online continues to be the top holiday shopping destination, with 55 percent planning to make purchases digitally, followed by grocery stores (46 percent), department stores (44 percent) and discount stores (42 percent). 

The survey asked 8,247 adult consumers about their holiday shopping plans. It was conducted Oct. 1-7 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.1 percentage points.

Tags: National Retail Federation